Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
